All eyes on the smokestack — even Benedict’s

After two rounds of black smoke, what does it mean?

First, it’s no surprise. After a month of evaluating papal contenders, the common wisdom in Rome was that no one entered the conclave so heavily favored that he would sweep to a two-thirds majority in three ballots.

Second, it sets the stage for the crucial two ballots on Wednesday afternoon. Here is where a leading vote-getter either puts distance between himself and the rest of the pack, or stalls short of the necessary 77 votes.

White smoke this evening would lead many people to expect one of three men to appear at the central loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica: Italian Cardinal Angelo Scola, Brazilian Cardinal Odilo Scherer or Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet.

Another puff of black smoke would not remove these three contenders from papabile lists, but it would appear to indicate some reluctance among the cardinals in forming a consensus around any one of them.

If Thursday does not produce a pope, the chance of a surprise is even greater.

Pope Benedict watching

The ex-Pope Benedict, like the rest of the world, is following the conclave proceedings from the outside. He watched TV coverage of the first black smoke last night, according to Vatican spokesman Father Federico Lombardi, who had spoken with Benedict’s personal secretary, Archbishop Georg Ganswein.

Benedict is at the papal villa at Castelgandolfo, 17 miles away from Rome. Vatican officials the retired pope won’t receive any special alert when a new pope is elected.

Today the Vatican said the ex-pope was not expected to attend the inauguration Mass of the new pontiff. That seems to confirm the impression that Benedict really plans to be “invisible” to the world.

Smoke signal recipe revealed

Today, to the applause of reporters, the Vatican spokesman actually revealed the chemical composition of the canisters used to create the black and white smoke.

The high-tech section of the two-part stove burns a “black” or “white” canister that fires five chemical doses over a seven-minute period.

For black smoke the composition is potassium perchlorate, anthracene and sulpher. The recipe for white smoke is potassium chlorate, lactose and rosin (a natural amber resin made from conifers.)

So far the system has worked pretty well, better than other years. The black smoke last night looked like an inky eruption. The smoke at midday today was dark grey to black, certainly not white.

Conclave Day 1: Praying and politicking

People often imagine a conclave as a political convention in red robes, where cardinals may pray to the Holy Spirit but do their real business in back-room maneuvers.

Judging from my conversations with cardinals over the last two weeks, the “campaigning” aspect of a conclave is exaggerated in popular imagination. But that doesn’t mean the cardinals don’t talk, lobby and carefully calculate the chances of their favorite candidate.

From the moment it begins this evening, you could probably divide the conclave into “praying” and “politicking” moments.

The praying takes place in the Sistine Chapel, where the voting procedure is so formal and so solemn that the cardinals don’t even talk to each other. There’s a reason the cardinals will file into the chapel in choir dress – they are, in a sense, participating in a liturgy.

For that reason, there’s no chit-chat among the cardinal electors, and certainly no chance to ruminate on vote tallies.

But that changes as soon as the cardinals exit the Sistine and get on the mini-buses to the Domus Sanctae Marthae, their residence inside Vatican City. They begin to talk, to reflect on the balloting and, yes, even to promote their candidates to brother cardinals.

There’s a reason the conclave generally begins with a single ballot in an evening session. The first ballot, which may find 15 or more cardinals receiving votes, gives the lay of the land, and the cardinals have some numbers to work with as they head off to dinner.

These meals at the Domus are extremely important. There’s no assigned seating, and for many cardinals it’s the first real chance they have to converse at length with prelates from other countries and regions. And once the dining room clears out, smaller and more private conversations continue into the night.

The conclave rules are pretty adamant about what is and is not allowed in these conversations. What’s forbidden (under penalty of excommunication) is making any pact or promise that would oblige a cardinal to vote for a particular candidate – or deny his vote to a candidate. Also banned are any deals that would promise certain appointments or courses of action if a particular cardinal is elected pope.

For example, it would break the rules to ask Cardinal X to support your candidate, and promise in return that as pope, he would make Cardinal X his secretary of state.

One Italian papabile, Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan, was reported to have addressed that issue head-on when he told fellow cardinals that, whether or not he’s considered a papal contender, he didn’t want to hear anyone approach him with a deal or a bargain.

What the rules do allow, however, is “the exchange of views concerning the election.” That’s broad enough to permit the kind of promotion, plugs and endorsements that circulate quietly in the Domus. And the cardinals feel a duty to do this kind of talking, because without it the conclave could easily stall.

From an initial group of 15 or more vote-getters, the second and third ballots the next morning generally thin the field down to seven or eight candidates. Lunch on Day 2 of a conclave is typically a crucial moment, when momentum is assessed carefully and when votes are shifted to front-runners.

If a conclave goes into Day 3 and beyond, it’s a sign that original favorites may lack the support needed for reaching the necessary two-thirds majority. At that point, the cardinals may turn to other candidates – and keep praying to the Holy Spirit for guidance.

An Argentine cardinal who’s quietly drawing attention – again

As we approach the start of Conclave 2013, it’s instructive to take a look back on Conclave 2005 – especially given the possibility that a protagonist of that election could return as a papabile this time around.

The vote tallies in the 2005 conclave were leaked five months later in an anonymous cardinal’s diary, which formed the basis of an article published by the Italian journal Limes. The author, Lucio Brunelli, is a respected journalist who has covered the Vatican for decades, so his account – which has since been supported by others – deserves attention.

According to the diary, Cardinal Ratzinger led off the first ballot by obtaining 47 votes. Behind him were Argentine Cardinal Jorge Maria Bergoglio with 10 votes, Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini of Milan with 9 votes and a handful of other candidates with lower numbers.

Cardinal Bergoglio’s showing on the first ballot was a real surprise, and the next day his tally climbed to 35, compared to 65 for Cardinal Ratzinger. The third vote brought Cardinal Ratzinger to 72 (five shy of the needed two-thirds majority) and Cardinal Bergoglio to 40.

The cardinals took their lunch break at this crucial point. It was clear that the next vote would either see the election of Cardinal Ratzinger or, if his support had peaked, mark a move toward another candidate – perhaps Cardinal Bergoglio.

According to anonymous sources later cited by Italian journalists, Cardinal Bergoglio let it be known – more in gestures than in words – that he was not ready to accept the office of the papacy. They say this is one reason some of his early supporters voted for Cardinal Ratzinger on the fourth and final ballot that elected him Pope Benedict XVI.

Others are adamant that Bergoglio never “refused” the possibility of election, and say he was simply humbled by the idea of becoming pope.

Why is this important today?

Because in the last few days, some serious voices have mentioned Cardinal Bergoglio as a contender in the coming conclave. Not simply because he came in second the last time around, but because he impressed cardinals when he took the floor in the pre-conclave meetings that began last week.

His words left the impression that even at age 76, Bergoglio had the energy and the inclination to do some house-cleaning in the Roman Curia.

Bergoglio, the son of an Italian railway worker, joined the Jesuit order at the age of 21. As a pastor in the Archdiocese of Buenos Aires, he has built a reputation as a conservative on doctrinal issues and a progressive on social justice. He once said the church has to preach Gospel simplicity and Gospel certainty, and his own lifestyle seems to witness that message (he lives in a simple apartment and takes public transportation, for example.)

This conclave has multiple contenders but no real front-runner, and it’s quite possible that if early voting produces a stall, the College of Cardinals could once again turn to Cardinal Bergoglio as someone who would bring key changes but without an extra-long reign.