Counting cardinals, and others

Vatican-watchers are counting cardinals these days, for very logical reasons. In early December, Pope Francis added 20 voting-age members to the body that will eventually elect his successor. Ten days later he celebrated his 88th birthday, making him the third oldest sitting pope in history – and prompting renewed speculation about retirement.

The next papal conclave will indeed be crucial for preserving Pope Francis’ legacy, whose key elements are pastoral mercy and outreach, more participatory ways of church governance, and progressive positions on social issues ranging from climate change to the death penalty. Francis has now named about 80 percent of voting-age cardinals.

But cardinals are not the only ones being counted, as this pontificate lengthens toward the 12-year mark. It’s important to remember that Francis was elected after his two conservative predecessors, John Paul II and Benedict XVI, governed the church for more than 34 years.

I recognize that the term “conservative” does not exactly fit any pope. But it fits both John Paul and Benedict in one special category: their selection of bishops around the world. Under JPII, I remember reporting on how his Roman Curia used a doctrinal checklist to vet candidates for bishop vacancies, on such issues as birth control, women priests, liberation theology and lines of authority in the church. I have no doubt that this “litmus test” approach continued under Benedict, but with less publicity.

I think it’s been difficult for many of these bishops to get on board the Pope Francis express, and in some cases has triggered antagonism or outright opposition to the pope’s policies, including in the United States.

Francis has taken a notably different approach when naming bishops, in many cases selecting priests who are close to their people and who reflect his pastoral strategy of removing obstacles, doctrinal and otherwise, to participation in the life of the church. But even for a pope, remodeling the church’s hierarchy is a very slow process.

According to Vatican’s statistics, to date Pope Francis has appointed slightly more than 2,150 bishops. That is about 40 percent of the total number of bishops in the world, and well over half the number of active (non-retired) bishops.

But there’s another element at play here. The pool from which Francis has drawn his new bishops has been made up of priests formed during the previous two pontificates, a time when new priestly vocations largely reflected a more rigid doctrinal approach. From ordination to bishop, when it happens, is typically a 30-year or longer timeline.

All this helps explain why the Pope has held off on some major policy changes, partly because he knew he could not make them without causing division in a global hierarchy that would not enthusiastically support those decisions.

It also explains why a generational change in the church’s pastoral workforce is essential not only for preserving Pope Francis’ legacy, but implementing it. A 12-year pontificate is a start, but it’s something his successor will need to continue … and that is not a given. That's a big reason why many observers are counting cardinals and their allegiances these days.